Stirewalt on Politics: Weekly Averages and Analysis from The Dispatch
The race for the presidency is heating up as the latest polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. According to the averages for the presidential contest, Trump is at 40.6 percent, Biden at 40.0 percent, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 11.6 percent. This data comes from the five most recent polls that meet strict methodological requirements.
While some may question the significance of tracking the national average when the president is elected through the Electoral College, there is a strong correlation between swing states and the national result. In 2020, Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points but only had a 1 point lead in the swing states.
The polls may not always accurately reflect the final outcome, but they do provide insight into the direction of the race. Biden has been gaining support from Democrats and independents, which is reflected in the averages. Additionally, third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to show strong numbers, although his final vote total may differ from his polling average.
As the race continues, it will be interesting to see how the averages fluctuate and whether split-ticket voting will make a resurgence. Incumbency and political realignment play a significant role in determining the outcome of Senate races, as seen in states like Montana and Ohio.
Overall, the polls provide a snapshot of the current state of the race and offer a glimpse into the potential outcomes. Stay tuned for more updates on the presidential contest and other key races leading up to Election Day.
